The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine

Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine includes four main features: postseason odds (including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title), odds for reaching the play-in tournament, the most likely final standings for each conference, and lottery odds (for the top pick and a top-five pick). The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming months as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

We’re simulating the rest of the regular season—and postseason—every day. This chart shows the average win total for every team, as well as each team’s likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs and winning the 2021-22 title.

Before this postseason starts in full, each conference will host three play-in games. The top six teams in each conference will automatically advance to the playoff bracket—but nos. 7, 8, 9, and 10 will all participate in the play-in round. Which teams are most likely to compete in this new showcase? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance are included here.)

Interested in the juiciest potential matchups in the first round, or your favorite team’s path to the Finals? These charts show the most likely final standings in each conference, based on today’s simulations. Start planning your brackets now!

The 2022 NBA draft will likely feature a slew of skilled big men at the top, with Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., and Paolo Banchero projecting as potential franchise cornerstones. Accounting for the simulated final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are your favorite team’s chances of landing no. 1, or a top-five selection? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance of nabbing a top-five pick are included here.)