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The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine

Will your team make the playoffs? Who has the best chances of getting the no. 1 pick in the draft? What are the most probable first-round matchups? Our model has you covered.

All illustrations: Getty Images/Ringer illustration

Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine includes four main features: postseason odds (including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title), odds for reaching the play-in tournament, the most likely final standings for each conference, and lottery odds (for the top pick and a top-five pick). The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming months as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

We’re simulating the rest of the regular season—and postseason—every day. This chart shows the average win total for every team, as well as each team’s likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs and winning the 2021-22 title.

Postseason Odds

Team Average Wins Playoffs Title
Team Average Wins Playoffs Title
Suns 63 100% 27%
Celtics 49 100% 13%
Heat 54 100% 11%
Jazz 52 100% 11%
Warriors 54 100% 10%
Grizzlies 54 100% 7%
Bucks 50 100% 6%
Cavaliers 48 99% 3%
76ers 50 100% 2%
Mavericks 49 99% 2%
Nuggets 49 98% 2%
Timberwolves 46 92% 2%
Bulls 47 98% 1%
Raptors 44 82% 1%
Clippers 41 72% <1%
Nets 41 47% <1%
Hawks 41 43% <1%
Hornets 40 28% <1%
Pelicans 35 15% <1%
Lakers 35 14% <1%
Spurs 33 10% <1%
Knicks 36 3% <1%
Wizards 36 2% <1%
Trail Blazers 31 <1% <1%
Kings 29 <1% <1%
Pacers 29 <1% <1%
Thunder 25 <1% <1%
Pistons 23 <1% <1%
Magic 23 <1% <1%
Rockets 22 <1% <1%

Before this postseason starts in full, each conference will host three play-in games. The top six teams in each conference will automatically advance to the playoff bracket—but nos. 7, 8, 9, and 10 will all participate in the play-in round. Which teams are most likely to compete in this new showcase? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance are included here.)

East Play-in Odds

Team Odds
Team Odds
Nets 96%
Hawks 92%
Hornets 86%
Raptors 82%
Wizards 14%
Knicks 11%
Bulls 9%
Cavaliers 8%
76ers 2%
Celtics 1%
Bucks 1%

West Play-in Odds

Team Odds
Team Odds
Clippers 100%
Lakers 75%
Pelicans 72%
Timberwolves 69%
Spurs 45%
Mavericks 16%
Nuggets 15%
Trail Blazers 6%
Kings 1%

Interested in the juiciest potential matchups in the first round, or your favorite team’s path to the Finals? These charts show the most likely final standings in each conference, based on today’s simulations. Start planning your brackets now!

Most Likely East Seedings

Seed Team
Seed Team
1 Heat
2 Bucks
3 76ers
4 Celtics
5 Cavaliers
6 Bulls
7 Raptors
8 Nets
9 Hawks
10 Hornets

Most Likely West Seedings

Seed Team
Seed Team
1 Suns
2 Grizzlies
3 Warriors
4 Jazz
5 Mavericks
6 Nuggets
7 Timberwolves
8 Clippers
9 Pelicans
10 Lakers

The 2022 NBA draft will likely feature a slew of skilled big men at the top, with Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., and Paolo Banchero projecting as potential franchise cornerstones. Accounting for the simulated final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are your favorite team’s chances of landing no. 1, or a top-five selection? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance of nabbing a top-five pick are included here.)

Lottery Odds

Team No. 1 One Top-5 Pick Two Top-5 Picks
Team No. 1 One Top-5 Pick Two Top-5 Picks
Rockets 14% 80% 2%
Magic 14% 80% 0%
Pistons 14% 78% 0%
Thunder 13% 61% 1%
Pacers 10% 42% 0%
Kings 9% 40% 0%
Trail Blazers 7% 31% 0%
Pelicans 7% 25% 2%
Spurs 5% 20% 0%
Knicks 3% 14% 0%
Wizards 3% 13% 0%
Hornets 1% 4% 0%
Hawks 1% 3% 0%
Raptors <1% 1% 0%
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